QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

Roger, I'm going to be polite but firm and simply give you a REALITY CHECK and a short primer on how REAL science and REAL investigations work.
>>>It's relatively rigorous. He excluded rock-throwing reports that lacked corroborative evidence. It wasn't absolutely rigorous in refusing to credit a witness lacking absolute proof that his encounter was real. E.g., unless he had an affidavit signed by the Bigfoot that he'd thrown the rock.
Its ABSURD, UNPROFESSIONAL, UNSCIENTIFIC and downright HEARSAY( and in certain circumstances would even be CRIMINAL) is what it is. The ONLY thing that would "corroborate" a report of a BF throwing an object is either.
1) SEEING the BF throw the rock
2) having a rock with DEFINITIVE PROOF on it that can be traced back to a BF
You’ve twisted my words. I didn’t make as strong a claim as you implied. I didn’t say that a witness’s saying that he saw a rock thrown in conjunction with his finding a footprint “corroborated a report”—i.e., provided proof. That’s your strawman. I said he had “corroborative evidence”—which didn’t imply proof, but merely evidence that strengthened his other evidence. IOW, in most cases of a thrown rock there would be a mundane explanation: a prankster, a recreational rock-thrower, even a rock deposited long ago in a tree by a volcano falling to earth. But if the thrown-rock occurred in conjunction with a sighting or footprint find, that strengthens the likelihood of its being connected with that occurrence.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

All the rest of that "excuse" is simply wishful thinking trying to turn junk science into the real thing. If I tried to present such a thing to a scientific body, I would be blackballed.
I believe that such inferences are common in scientific work, at least when the conclusion drawn seems reasonable, and the inferential leap is small. But larger leaps are common in fields where there is little data and no way of conducting experiments, as when dealing with distant objects and the distant past. Scientific publications on matters like the Big Bang, the extinction of megafauna in North America 13,000 years ago, global warming, and evolution by natural selection, all make large inferential leaps. They are not thereby excluded from publication in scientific journals. Leading-edge scientific consensus in such fields is not a matter of absolute proof, but probable opinion—and even speculative opinion.
From what I’ve seen of scientific papers, there is a Findings section that sticks to the facts, and then a Discussion section that infers, or logically connects, or speculates, or does all three, as to the meaning of the findings. IOW, there’s not such a tight inferential linkage between the evidence and the conclusions as you assert. There’s a good deal of subjectivity and "slack" involved. Here’s a quote that supports my position:
QUOTE(Browne & Keeley @ “Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking”)
Research findings do not prove conclusions. At best, they support conclusions. Research findings do not speak for themselves. Researchers must always interpret the meaning of their findings, and all findings can be interpreted in more than one way. Thus, researchers’ findings should not be treated as demonstrated “truths.”
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

That’s like me taking a report of hearing a GUNSHOT and finding an ARROW leading to the discovery of a STEAK in a grocery store ( dead cow) and ARRESTING you for MURDER as a result. (after all, according to this new standard of "relatively rigorous" method documented in the BF science course- I have a report of violence, I have a weapon, I have a dead body and a suspect and it all "fits" into my belief. Lets go to trial)
Another strawman. I didn’t claim that a report like the one I cited provides proof; and furthermore I don’t think that a thousand such reports provide proof, or anything near it. (Indeed, once past a certain point, the more reports there are, the
less convincing they are collectively, because such frequent sightings imply that there should be more evidence of their existence in the form of spoor, photos, etc.)
I.e., I don’t think we believers have enough to “go to trial” with. But we do have enough to meet a lower bar: there’s enough evidence to warrant a publicly funded investigation, similar to the investigation last year in Arkansas to try to confirm the existence of the Ivory Bill woodpecker. In my past posts, made before you joined, I’ve stated more than once that we believers have only got 20% of the way to proof, and that all we can claim at this point is that there’s enough smoke to justify checking for a fire.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>It is not "speculative"--it's inferential. And such inferences are a normal part of science and of critical thinking in general. Science is no more a mass of "just the facts" than a house is a pile of bricks. A house is held together by theory (its overall coherence) and inference (the mortar). In other words, at many points in sciences that are not as "hard" as chemistry and physics, like field biology, there are implicit inferences made.
It’s junk is what it is! In science, one doesn’t infer unless there is EVIDENCE (something tangible or specifically relative) that it’s probable. Just like in your example above--suppose the "house" in question was made of WOOD and thus no bricks or mortar. (see how that works?) [OK—then change bricks and mortar to planks and nails—RK] Things have to be defined in terms and linked--not ASSumed for assumptions sake.
I’m not assuming, or anyway not
just assuming. That is, I haven’t willfully, arbitrarily, and baselessly come to a conclusion. Instead, I think the existence of several cases where witnesses have reported stone throwing in conjunction with a sighting are unlikely to all be due to coincidence or fraud or incompetence--especially not cases in which investigators have vetted the reporting persons to some degree and not found them seemingly credible. There’s enough to warrant a more intense investigation of the matter—a funded investigation.
There are degrees of tightness between the evidence and the inferences that are made from them. In “frontier science,” where not all the evidence is in, where the validity, quality, and meaning of the evidence is disputed, where lab testing is impossible (or anyway limited), fairly large, tentative inferential leaps must be made. Numerous conflicting theories of the causes of various diseases, for instance, are propounded and argued in this manner. There are many schools of thought on such matters. None of them are unscientific just because they aren’t airtight. Only well-established textbook science, or scientific journals in fairly settled fields, and fields where certain knowledge is obtainable, hew closely to air-tightness.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>A large "bed" found in gorilla's territory is inferred to be used for sleeping by a gorilla. (That's so short a leap it hardly counts--but it's an inference nevertheless.)
That’s a decent analogy because gorillas are KNOWN to exist, make beds etc and if such a bed big enough to be used by a gorilla in an area they were KNOWN to be in--that’s logical.
That’s only the first step away from certainty on a continuum that has many gradations of increasing uncertainty. All such inferences are respectable, provided they don’t label themselves as proof, but rather indicate their degree of uncertainty by using terms commonly found in scientific writing like “suggestive evidence” or even a mere “puzzling anomaly.” They are not utterly dismissible just because they aren’t proof, which is the essence of your argument—and a key scoftical dogma. (It’s the hidden trickery involved in the “extraordinary evidence” dogma: All evidence that doesn’t amount to proof therefore means zero and deserves no further attention. But, in cases of episodic phenomenon where investigation requires money and expertise and a social imprimatur, it’s unreasonable to demand that “the claimant” cough up proof. It’s society’s job to look into such matters, just as it’s the CDC’s job to look into claims of weird new diseases.)
For instance, if evidence for the existence of the Ivory Bill woodpecker is taken seriously and given weight, that’s a larger inferential leap than the one made about an apparent gorilla bed most likely being made by a gorilla. An Ivory Bill is a known species, but is presumed extinct. And yet it’s a respectable leap for a scientist to make—provided he remembers that he is in relativistic, probabilistic (“most likely” or “it’s possible”) terms.
A similar situation exists when the tracks of Out Of Place animals are found, such as Alien Big Cats in Britain, or Eastern Cougars.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>A newly recorded wood-tapping pattern and bird-cry that matches the unique taps and cries of Ivory Bill woodpeckers (before they went extinct) can reasonably be inferred to be that of the same species.
That’s ABSURD (Paredolia actually), because unless the IBW has a DISTINCTIVE "tap"- it cannot be reasonably attributed to it alone.
The IBW does have such a distinctive tap, according to the experts in the matter.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

(define a metric by which one birds "tap" can be distinguished from another- or from a hammer tapping a tree for that matter)
QUOTE(Tim Gallagher @ “The Grail Bird,” pp. 243-44)
In a sound spectrograph—which is a computer-generated snapshot of a sound showing its pitch, loudness, and duration—the double rap of a Campephilus woodpecker has a distinctive look: two sharp peaks, the first one significantly taller than the second, with a small space in between. That interval between the peaks, which averages 75 milliseconds in most species in this genus, together with the difference in intensity between the first and second rap, is what makes those double raps stand out from other sounds in the woods. True, two trees or limbs might bang together occasionally on a windy day and create a double-rap sound, but the odds are extremely low that this would produce the perfect spectrographic signature of a Campephilus woodpecker. And a gunshot looks nothing at all like a double rap on a spectrograph.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>It's not proof, but it deserves to be taken seriously as possibly or probably being true. It's not "rigorous" but irrational to insist that such evidence means nothing because it hasn't been proved.
What’s irrational (and downright FOOLISH) is to take anecdotal evidence which can have 10,000 DIFFERENT explanations and zero in on ONE simply because it fits an individual worldview (and excluding all others)
Name a dozen. (I.e., provide a dozen mundane explanations for an encounter with multiple reinforcing features, like a footprint and a stone-throwing.)
Then give a mundane explanation for a
collection of similar reports with the same constellation of features.
If your explanation is that the witnesses are lying, mistaken, fantasizing, copying the reports they’ve read by others (unlikely in the early cases) and/or incapacitated, then provide some evidence for your claim. You have a burden of proof, if you make or imply such a claim.
To obtain such evidence, an intense investigation of the persons making reports, and the circumstances of their reports, including numerous psychological tests, would have to be performed, as Barbara Wasson urged thirty long years ago. Let the chips fall where they may. That sort of check-out is needed to get to the bottom of the mystery. Or at least to exclude a few ways of dismissing it as unreal. But it requires public funding.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>In the same way, if a BF witness (or "reporting person," or RP) claims that his encounter included several elements that other witnesses have reported, such as a terrible odor, a screech, a thrown rock, and a footprint, the context of these strange elements occurring together strengthens the entire report.
Is that like the "context" of saying that since a jet and a helicopter have wings- they must be birds? Or the direct context of since birds build nests- that’s "proof" they have the ability to use tools and employ complex analytical thinking skills?
Your analogy lacks any relevance. A proper analogy would be a case where a gorilla bed is found in association with gorilla poop, gorilla odor, gorilla hair, etc. Or where an Ivory Bill is heard tapping in conjunction with being heard making its distinctive call and in further conjunction with a sighting.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>It's not "rigorous" but irrational to insist that such evidence means nothing because it hasn't been proved.
Its even MORE irrational to "infer" that such that such "evidence" points to a specific conclusion that cannot be DIRECTLY linked to the body of evidence. (kinda like Nifong and the Duke case- the alleged victim HAD DNA present[ from several men] and it did NOT match ANY of the 46 tested but lets charge 3 of them anyway because he "believed" her story)
As I’ve said above, a direct linkage is not needed, provided all one is doing is calling for an investigation, not an indictment.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>The default should not be to say that, since each odd element can be explained away in isolation from its context, the parsimonious thing to do would be to dismiss the entire report. That's "irrational rationalism"--i.e., scofticism.
Quite the CONTRARY. That’s called the process of TESTING and elimination. (that’s how the TRUTH is derived and FACT is separated from FICTION)
No, it’s just “explaining away,” which ignores the context. This is a key tactic of scofticism.
Let’s say there are two witnesses to a Bigfoot who, unknown to each other, sight the animal miles or days apart and report that it had the same characteristics as regards hair color and length, height, sex, bulk, etc. Or suppose there were half a dozen witnesses to a sighting who made similar descriptions when interviewed. The similarity of their descriptions severely undercuts attempts to explain away their reports in terms of hallucinations, incapacity, lying, etc. When this context—the similarity of reports—is ignored, that’s what results in a fiction, despite your blustering capitalizations to the contrary.
Similarly, the context of numerous witness sightings “adds up”—they can’t be collectively be dismissed in the same way each individual case can be. Here’s why not:
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

Do you really want to do a line by line dissection of "irrational rationalism" as its used specifically in BF "science"? OOPs, wait a minute- I guess that really IS "blood" in the creek and that really IS a gunshot wound. Call the DA and lets put Gimlin on trial so he can "have his day in court" and prove his innocence. After all, the body of evidence as presented "fits" the theme of the report so it "must" be true. (why would we want to throw out such a report that contains so much "evidence" that supports the conclusion?- it does look like blood, it does look like a possible wound, those do look like backhoe marks etc- it has to be correct)
On the contrary Bigfoot science and the Bigfooter consensus has emphatically and nearly unanimously rejected MK Davis’s bloody pool and thigh-shot hypothesis—as have I. (They look spectacular, but just because something looks a certain way doesn’t mean that it
is a certain way. Context must be considered, as well as more likely alternative explanations.) Scott Marlowe’s attempt to put Gimlin on trial has been even more emphatically rejected. This is just another of your strawmen—it’s unrepresentative of Bigfoot science.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>It's by the same method of "indirect proof," or exclusion of the absurd and impossible, that is commonly employed in logic, math, science, and detective work.
Oh BULLSH#T!!!!!! (you do realize you are talking to a former INVESTIGATOR and scientist who has done this in the REAL world?)
Euclid employed indirect reasoning, I recall. It’s recommended in guides to critical thinking like Polya’s classic
How to Solve it (pages 162-171 in my edition) and Anthony Weston’s
A Rulebook for Arguments. It’s such a basic and obvious device that I’m sure it’s used in science and law as well, where appropriate. For instance, it stands to reason that if the defendant’s alibi can be ruled out, that indirectly proves that he’s guilty. For example, OJ’s alibi that he owned no pair of the unusual Bruno Magli shoes, whose prints in his size were found at the murder scene, was discredited when a photo of him in them surfaced. That destroyed his credibility and established his guilt—at least beyond the 50% level required in a civil trial. (However, because legal cases involve real life, not a controlled experiment, such a conclusion isn’t airtight.) I regret that I don’t have any scientific cases handy that I can cite. I hope to bone up on this subject in time and have a better comeback.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>It's what Bill Munns is employing in his analysis of the PGF. E.g., if a suit can be ruled out, or anyway shown to be unlikely, then a creature is, indirectly, ruled in, or shown to be more likely. Likewise, if no known animal throws stones, then some unknown animal is (possibly or probably) throwing stones.
LOL, here’s how this really works. There are 2 possible facts
1) patty is a suit
2) patty is an animal
There’s no 3rd option. The evidence available is not capable of making an accurate determination of #1. So one now must look at all the ancillary evidence and make a reasonable determination on the total body of evidence.
Based on what you said to Munns on this matter, I infer that what you’re implying here is that, since it is theoretically out of the question for Bigfoot to exist (there’s little hard evidence, how does it survive the winter, what does it eat, why so few tracks in the snow, why aren’t there more encounters if it’s so widespread, etc.), then it doesn’t matter if Patty doesn’t look like a suit; she can be ruled out on
a priori grounds.
I, personally, admit the weight of such arguments against Bigfoot’s existence. Indeed, I even posted here somewhere that if Bigfoot is confirmed, I won’t say, “I told you so,” I’ll say, “Hey wait a second, that’s impossible.” I even created a list of 23 Reasons Why Bigfoot’s Unlikely, printed it up onto double-sided business cards that I distributed at a talk I gave, and posted here. I didn’t go along with the rebuttals that were offered by believers here—I thought the collective weight of the Reasons was strong, even if each one of them wasn’t airtight.
I’m of two minds about the Bigfoot phenomenon. I can’t dismiss the objections to Bigfoot’s being real, because they seem strong, but I can’t dismiss the evidence in Bigfoot’s favor either. I think attempts by disbelievers to do so are very unconvincing. I’m on the fence, but leaning toward belief, even though it’s hard to justify.
(What I think is really going on is that the Pranksters Above are trying to rattle our cages, both believers’ and disbelievers’. My main conclusion is that the evidence justifies the establishment of a Department of Weird Things, dedicated to gathering, collecting, and critiquing such oddities. There’d be a skeptics’ wing in this department. Who knows, maybe that tail would wag the dog.)
Therefore I don’t think it’s right to give no weight to findings in favor of Patty’s authenticity. I think the honest thing to do is to admit that the phenomenon poses a real puzzle, with strong considerations on both sides. I’ve said here that I believe more in Patty than in Bigfoot, contrary to the usual believer’s position. It’s illogical, but it makes a certain amount of sense.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

(like your rocks, how did you EXCLUDE the possibility of the witness lying or being mistaken? this rock being thrown by a HUMAN or kicked up by a vehicle UNSEEN to the witness? fall out of a tree?) you see how that works? You can’t cherry pick the answers you want unless and until you examine ALL possibilities and systematically eliminate (or not) them individually. Whatever is left (ALL of them) becomes the basis of the functional theory(s)
You can argue that there might well be something wrong with an individual case. But that doesn’t scale up—it’s implausible to dismiss a large collection of cases:
QUOTE(RogerKni @ Apr 16 2005, 04:25 AM)

Accumulating [suggestive] evidence can "move the bead" along the grey scale far enough to get us close to virtual certainty. Here's a quote describing the thinking behind that assertion, found at
Bobbie's site:
QUOTE
the null hypothesis [would dictate that] the probability is 63.4% that at least one report was produced by an honest, competent observer. Since the number of recorded observations is far greater than 100 and it is similarly doubtful that 99% of the general public are worthless interpreters, the actual probability that at least one report is valid is well over 99%.
There's another justifiable reason for believers' seemingly uncritical acceptance of wobbly evidence, which was neatly put by Green in
Apes among Us, p. 236: "If one report is true it is almost certain that most of them are. ... If you find yourself forced to accept any of the reports as valid, you lose your basic reason for questioning the validity of others. … Then there is no reason to doubt that most of the people who think they have encountered one have actually done so.”
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>Save it for JREF
Is your position so weak that it cannot withstand the methods and scrutiny of the same "science" you claim to use to support it? Or do you just want to hear what you want to hear? I have effectively dissected your position with REAL science- can you do the same with mine? (if not, perhaps you would profit by doing some introspection on how you derived your conclusions)
My comment followed your world-weary sigh of exasperation, “And people wonder.......”
That posturing and attitude-striking, which you failed to quote, is what I suggested you save for JREF, its natural habitat. I wasn’t referring to your entire post, as you pretend.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>I do not throw the term scoftic around as a mere "boo-word" when I have no argumentative substance. That's what scoftics wish were the case. Nor do I usually employ it as a direct attack on some other poster. (The exchange here is an exception.) Rather, I usually employ it in an educational sense, when illustrating argumentative tactics that are part of movement-Skepticism's bag of tricks.
Since that’s directed to me specifically (based on your own admission in parentheses) and is by YOUR words a "direct attack"- allow me to fire back.
What I should have said was that I used it here as an attack on the arguments you employed, not on you personally. That’s all I did. (In other cases I usually employ it as an “aside,” talking in the abstract (impersonally) about positions taken by the group of scoffing skeptics I call scoftics.) I referred to your tactic of dismissing evidence without considering its context when I used that word.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

Your use of the term scoftic is unsupported by fact, …
The term implies that capital-S “Skeptics” are not dedicated to truth first, but to debunking or scoffing at virtually any cost. My use of the term is well-supported by the articles I linked to a couple of weeks ago, and by the arguments of Marcello Truzzi, a CSICOP co-founder who left the organization in disgust. He also renounced the phrase he had coined, “Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence,” because of the way it had been mis-employed (see my comments above on it) by what he called “pseudo-skeptics,” whom he described as scoffers, not true skeptics. I’ve just mashed together his “scoffer” with “skeptic” to produce a less unwieldy tag.
As for ad homs, scoftics have been the leaders in that regard, with numerous and frequently employed abusive terms. I’m just trying to even the balance. You guys just don’t like it when someone turns the scorn on you.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

… ad hom,
Not so, it’s ad rem. It speaks to the character of the arguments, not the character of my opponent. Here’s what I said:
QUOTE(RogerKni)
The default should not be to say that, since each odd element can be explained away in isolation from its context, the parsimonious thing to do would be to dismiss the entire report. That's "irrational rationalism"--i.e., scofticism.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

indicative of a complete and total misunderstanding of all things science
One thing I’d really like to see would be a critique of what you scoftics imagine science to be by a panel of scientists reviewing various scoftical books and websites. Your position seems to be an uncritical scientism, which is the position that science, and only science, is entitled to speak with authority about truth. I don’t think that science has that much authority. I don’t think it has much to say about decision-making in military or legal matters, where an insistence that only evidence that had been completely validated could be given consideration would lead to disastrous outcomes. And I think your idea that science is something objective and above all inference and human foibles is unsustainable.
Unfortunately, I’m not well-read enough in the field to do a good job of this myself. And I’ve been so busy with other stuff that I haven’t been able to read most of the books I’ve bought. But I’m convinced I’m in the right by a couple I’ve dipped into, such as
The Golem: What You Should Know about Science, by Harry M. Collins and Trevor Pinch. The editorial review on its Amazon page reads:
QUOTE
Through a series of intriguing case studies including the study of relativity, cold fusion, the "memory" in worms, and the sex life of lizards, this book debunks the view that scientific knowledge is a straightforward outcome of competent theorization, observation, and experimentation. This second edition contains a substantial new Afterword that responds to some of the criticisms made by scientists. A distinction is made between the responses of scientific fundamentalists who maintain the myth of scientific certainty and more serious-minded critics.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

and the ramblings of a fool.
Tsk tsk. Persons referring this post in the future, as you suggest below, will tend to put that label on you for your mad invective, name-calling, numerous strawmen, typos galore, uncritical scientism, bombastic belligerence, etc.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

Your reasoning is fatally flawed at EVERY level. Your "facts" are not. Your deductions are bogus and unsupported and the entire premise of your argument is based in FANTASY. If you ever wonder how and why BF "science" is in the gutter and has the WELL EARNED reputation of same- refer to this post.
Nurse, the cold compress.
QUOTE(longtabber PE @ Jul 13 2008, 04:01 AM)

>>>Most "skeptical" criticism of Bigfootery is foolish (irrational), knavish, or both, and deserves to be exposed for what it is--scoffing in sophistical disguise. This exposure is more important than anything to do with Bigfoot.
OOOOOOOOOOOOk- for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction. (let me reword your statement as a counter argument)
ALL "anecdotal" blind acceptance of the "facts" in bigfootery is foolish ( irrational), knavish or both and deserves to be exposed for what it is-- kool aid drinking by disguising pseudo and junk science as the real thing. This exposure is equally more important than anything to do with BF.
Pathetic.